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Forum:2014-15 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
Related Pages: *2014-15 Australian Region cyclone season (Betting pools) *2014-15 South Pacific cyclone season (Betting pools) Future Start Starting with this new season, the SHem will be split into 3 forums for each basin. Betting pools for this basin are here. Ryan1000 21:02, January 18, 2014 (UTC) There's only one storm I'm waiting for.. KE$HA!!! It's going down, I'm gathering timber... “i liek turtlez 00:02, January 19, 2014 (UTC) I HOPE in the 2015 SWIOS it'll be active so we can get to Hurricane Ke$ha. “i liek turtlez 00:04, January 19, 2014 (UTC) AOI: ESE of Diego Garcia AOI: East-Southeast of Diego Garcia Yes, I know it is only early July, but we already have our first candidate for our season's first storm! Per the JTWC, an area of convection is located near 10.3S 82.9E, 640 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Multispectural satellite imagery depicts persistent deep convection obscuring an LLCC. A 1411Z SSMIS microwave image shows deep convective banding in the southwestern quadrant wrapping into the center. An 0419Z ASCAT pass showed this region contains the system's strongest winds. Strong poleward outflow is ventilating the convection and low to moderate wind shear of five to ten knots is prompting numeric models to forecast weak development in the next 24 to 48 hours. Winds are estimated to be at 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) (1-minute), and the pressure of the AOI is estimated to be at 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). The JTWC assesses the chances of formation for this system to be medium for the next 24 hours. What is going on here? AndrewTalk To Me 19:31, July 5, 2014 (UTC) :The area of convection has completely sheared from its LLCC, which has unraveled and become ill-defined anyway. So much for a tropical cyclone! AndrewTalk To Me 21:52, July 6, 2014 (UTC) 01S.ADJALI Moderate Tropical Storm Adjali First named storm of the SWIO this season, let alone of the SHem. Not forecast to become a very strong storm, but this has the potential to be a threat to southern Madagascar or Mauritius/Reunion as it recurves west in the long run. Ryan1000 01:42, November 17, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Adjali Now a Severe TS according to MFR, 10-min winds are at 60 mph/991 mbars. It's nearly of cat 1 strength according to the JTWC, 70 mph using the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Ryan1000 21:17, November 17, 2014 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Adjali (second time) I feel like I'm talking to myself lol...If only everyone else could care for these basins as much. Anyways, weakening now. Ryan1000 20:08, November 18, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Adjali Dead. Ryan1000 21:56, November 20, 2014 (UTC) 02S.NONAME Tropical Depression 02 Well out to sea atm. Ryan1000 00:41, November 27, 2014 (UTC) :Winds are currently at 30 knots (35 mph) (10-min) per MFR, with a pressure of 998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg). While the JTWC TCFA notes most of 02's convection is displaced in its western quadrant, convective banding is wrapping into a more-defined LLCC and VWS is being offset by vigorous poleward outflow. I definitely could see this depression becoming a MTS, if not an STS. AndrewTalk To Me 00:46, November 28, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 02S As 02S continues to consolidate and develop deep convection based on MSI and microwave imagery, the JTWC has classified Tropical Depression 02S as a 35 knot (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-min) tropical storm through Dvorak estimates, gusting to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h), despite most of its convection being sheared to the west. Unfortunately, albeit low to moderate VWS being offset by vigorous poleward outflow, 02S will only have another day or so before unfavorable conditions take over and rapidly destroy it. During this time, it should move SW and then S under the STR's influence per the JTWC, where it is slated to peak at 45 knots (50 mph) (1-min) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph). Nothing new from the MFR side, aside from a slight pressure drop to 997 mbar (hPa; 29.44 inHg). On a side note, Reunion may have to watch out; they are in the JTWC's forecast cone of 02S. AndrewTalk To Me 14:11, November 28, 2014 (UTC) :02S's pressure has risen to 999 mbar (hPa) per MFR. Nothing else new to speak of. AndrewTalk To Me 02:04, November 29, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 02 (Ex-02S) Well, 02S got sheared apart! With SSMIS imagery showing the LLCC fully exposed and all convection displaced, the JTWC has written off the depression. Meanwhile, MFR has downgraded 02S to a tropical disturbance with winds of 25 knots (30 mph, 45 km/h) (10-min) and a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa). Unfortunately, 02S was quite a bust, I expected more from it, but it instead completely fell apart while tracking poleward. AndrewTalk To Me 15:54, November 29, 2014 (UTC) 05S.BANSI Tropical Cyclone Bansi Not sure if anyone's still here, but we have a very rapidly developing storm in the SWIO right now, this one is forecast to become a strong cat 3 or 4 as it heads southeast, north of Mauritius and Reunion. Ryan1000 02:16, January 12, 2015 (UTC) Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi :At category four now. This could end up being one of the strongest cyclones in the basin. Supportstorm (talk) 23:38, January 12, 2015 (UTC) :::Holy crap, just one day after I said the above comment, this thing just exploded to a category 5 storm, now winds are at 160 mph and the pressure plummeted from 979 mbars down to 923 mbars. 56 milibars in 24 hours is an average of 2.3 milibars an hour, that's pretty damn impressive, to say the least. Thank goodness Bansi is not directly affecting land, if this explosive monster was a couple hundred kilometers farther south, Mauritius would not be having a good evening right now. Ryan1000 01:53, January 13, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Bansi (2nd time) Weakening now, down to 105 mph and 967 mbars, and still going out to sea. Off-topic, but today's my birthday...wish me a good one! Ryan1000 22:20, January 14, 2015 (UTC) :Happy birthday Ryan! It seems that Bansi is trying to become annular after its eye-wall replacement cycle. Not good for the Island of Rodrigues which is in its path. Supportstorm (talk) 04:14, January 15, 2015 (UTC) :::At this point in time it probably won't be too severe for them, if Bansi was as strong as it was two days ago, this could've been much worse for the islands of the SWIO. Ryan1000 04:37, January 15, 2015 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi Woah, looks like I spoke too soon. After undergoing that ERC, Bansi rapidly intensified again, now it's at 140 mph (115 3-minute sustained) and forecast to become a cat 5 again later today or tomorrow. Maybe they won't get off so easy from this after all. Ryan1000 15:58, January 15, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Bansi (3rd time) Should be weakening from here on out, expect it to die in a few days. Ryan1000 01:33, January 18, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Bansi No one wants to update these I see...Ryan1000 21:53, January 20, 2015 (UTC) 06S.CHEDZA Tropical Disturbance 06 Currently in the Mozambique Channel and heading towards Madagascar. 48 people have already died in floods related to this storm. Ryan1000 15:58, January 15, 2015 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Chedza Quickly intensified in the MC, but moved over Madagascar a few hours ago. Chedza should weaken fast or die over the island, but flooding is a concern for any storm that passes there. Ryan1000 01:19, January 17, 2015 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Chedza Just emerged off Madagascar. Hopefully impacts weren't too severe. Either way, it's not likely to restrengthen much, if at all, as it heads southward out to sea from here on out. Ryan1000 01:33, January 18, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Chedza Gone. Ryan1000 21:53, January 20, 2015 (UTC) 07S.DIAMONDRA Moderate Tropical Storm Diamondra SWIO's kicking up again, but both this and the system to the northwest are heading out to sea. It could get a little stronger on the way, but don't expect it. Ryan1000 20:16, January 27, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Diamondra Gone. Ryan1000 11:28, January 30, 2015 (UTC) 08S.EUNICE Tropical Depression 08 Weak storm heading out to sea for now, but it's expected to become Eunice on it's way out to sea, and at least a cat 3, according to the JTWC forecast. Ryan1000 20:16, January 27, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Eunice Intensifying quickly, now a cat 2 on the SSS, and could be a 4 by tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:25, January 28, 2015 (UTC) Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice Now the strongest storm of the season, beat Bansi by 8 mbars. Thankfully, it's still well out to sea. Ryan1000 22:15, January 29, 2015 (UTC) : This is a pretty epic storm, Eunice is now the second cat 5 of the season and the pressure dropped down to 900 mbars overnight, that's third to Gafilo '04 and Chris-Damia of January 1982 as the strongest storm ever recorded in the SWIO, and Eunice now has the highest 10-minute sustained winds of any storm in this basin (Gafilo, while it had a lower pressure, had 10-minute winds of 145, not 150). Ryan1000 11:23, January 30, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Eunice (2nd time) Weakening now, down to 105/965. Ryan1000 07:02, February 1, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Eunice Done. Ryan1000 16:48, February 3, 2015 (UTC) 14S.GLENDA Invest 90S La Reunion classifying this as Zone of Disturbed Weather 10 and they are expecting it to peak at 75 kt. JTWC have a TCFA on it too Kiewii! 20:24, February 22, 2015 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Glenda Now up to 35 kt and named Glenda. Kiewii 13:20, February 24, 2015 (UTC) : Long time no see, Glenda is looking better now. Expect it to become a category 1 or 2 storm while it heads southward out to sea. Ryan1000 21:00, February 25, 2015 (UTC) ::Yep, certainly looks better than this morning. Peak intensity expected at 85 kt from JTWC and 65 kt from MFR Kiewii 22:45, February 25, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Glenda Long dead. Never became a cat 1 either. :( Ryan1000 03:15, March 2, 2015 (UTC) 16S.HALIBA Moderate Tropical Storm Haliba This one's been around for a while, it struck Madagascar last week, but no one seems to be interested...hopefully Pam draws some attention. Ryan1000 15:42, March 10, 2015 (UTC) 17S.JOALANE Moderate Tropical Storm Joalane This one is expected to meander around for some time before possibly becoming a strong cyclone while passing east of Mauritius and Reunion. Ryan1000 21:08, April 6, 2015 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Joalane It's looking a lot better, and it's already expected to become a cat 5 by JTWC...if that happens, Joalane would be the third cat 5 of this season, a record if I'm not mistaken. Ryan1000 15:11, April 7, 2015 (UTC) :It's intensifying now, but not nearly as fast as it was initially expected. Forecast now calls for a cat 4 at its peak. Ryan1000 22:29, April 8, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Joalane Looks like that initial intensity forecast never materialized, and now it's a non-tropical storm heading south out to sea. Ryan1000 01:09, April 13, 2015 (UTC) 18S.IKOLA Tropical Cyclone Ikola Currently a category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, it's heading southeast fast and will eventually make it to western Australia, but by then likely as a remnant low. Ryan1000 21:08, April 6, 2015 (UTC) : Now a cat 2, but it's expected to weaken before it's remnants eventually touch part of southwest australia. Ryan1000 15:11, April 7, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Ikola Dead, but it's remnants could cause some flooding near Perth. Ryan1000 22:29, April 8, 2015 (UTC)